The Southeast Division in the Eastern Conference was quite easy to predict, to be honest. There is an obvious frontrunner and the teams fall into a nice mold. However, this division should be very interesting in the next couple of years. There are a couple of really young teams who have a lot of potential and it should be fun to watch. This will also be the final post in this series that I have been running for last month or so. This was a fun series to do and it made me broaden my knowledge on teams that I do not necessarily follow religiously. Basketball season is right around the corner and I just want it to get started already! Let’s jump into the division predictions.
First Place—Miami Heat
Shocker. This was pretty obvious and, honestly, there is no reason why the Heat should not be in first place. They have won the finals two years in a row and LeBron James is at the peak of his career. The Heat did not really do much over the off-season. They ended up waiving three-point shooter Mike Miller, which was not a surprise as people assumed that was going to happen at some point. Their biggest acquisition both in size and impact was Greg Oden. As a Blazer fan, I know the whole story behind Oden and watched him succumb to injuries here. It was painful to watch and it was sad to see such a talent being held back by physical and, eventually, mental problems. This will be the first time Oden will be on the court since December of 2009. That is a long time, but this pickup by the Heat was a low-risk, high-reward signing. If Oden can give them anything for ten to fifteen minutes off the bench, then this signing will be worth it. You saw in the Finals how Ray Allen single-handedly saved the Heat from elimination with his incredible three-point shot. That was the reason they got him, for moments just like that. I can foresee a situation where Oden can somehow affect Roy Hibbert or Joakim Noah is a big game, then that signing was worth it. The Heat already have Chris Andersen, but another big man cannot hurt. That has probably been the most glaring weakness that Miami has had, which is not having a dominant big man in the middle. You can see when they play teams like Indiana, Chicago, or even New York, it was rough. I do not think the Oden signing will solve all of their problems, but I think it will definitely help. Who knows, maybe Oden comes back better than ever and completely dominates in Miami, in which case Pat Riley is a genius.
The only negatives I can possibly bring up about this team are that Dwayne Wade is one year older and, as we saw in the playoffs last year, his knees are starting to betray him. It will be interesting to watch that storyline unfold as Wade gets older and as this season plays out. The other looming problem is the impending contract expirations. Remember, Wade, Bosh, and LeBron signed at the same time and agreed to the same amount of years. In 2014, Wade, LeBron, and Bosh all have early termination options on their contracts. Not only that, but basically their entire team is going to be either unrestricted or have a player option. I cannot sit here and say that this team will implode in a couple of years because, if LeBron does decide to stay, then I think Miami will contend until he starts feeling the effects of age. However, if LeBron decides to go somewhere else, then this team is in trouble. There are no upcoming rookies and it is hard to imagine a team led by Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole. Egh!
Not too much else to say about this team. They are still a machine who have an excellent shot at going for the three-peat. However, I think the competition has gotten a lot better around the league and it will be tough for the Heat to even get to the Finals as the East now proves to be a tougher road in the playoffs. I predict, however, that they easily lock up the first place slot in their division. The other teams in this division are nowhere even close to Miami’s level and it should be an easy task to build and sustain the lead.
Second Place—Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have always been weird for me. They have been a solid team and have always been able to mix things up, but never seem to make it far in the playoffs. To top it off, there never seems to be any fans at their games, which is slightly awkward when you are watching their games on TV. The Hawks probably made the most underrated move of the off-season and, in my opinion, no longer has to deal with a star who does not want to be there. They signed a new coach in Mike Budenholzer, who was an assistant coach to Greg Popovich last year, and definitely ushers in a new era of Hawks basketball. Unfortunately, Mike was charged with a DUI just after being hired, but I think that will not be a constant issue and he has definitely learned from his mistake. The Hawks have been stuck in a rut for a while and I think what they did this off-season will definitely help them get out of that.
The biggest signing was Paul Millsap who they signed to a two-year, $19 million deal. Considering that he was being overpaid in Utah, this was a nice, underrated signing. Millsap has a lot of talent and this kind of contract is perfect for him. While I do not think he is as good as Josh Smith, I think he will have a better head and be more of a team player. I actually like the sound of an Al Horford/Paul Millsap frontcourt. It is rock solid and I think a lot of people are going to underestimate the effectiveness of those two players together.
However, I take issue with the decision to sign Kyle Korver to a four-year deal. What? Do not get me wrong, I think he is a fine player who can definitely stretch the floor and be a threat, but four years!? That feels like a lot of money tied up into a three-point shooter. I could definitely see a two-year deal for Korver as he definitely fills a need for that team, but I guess they are going big for him. This off-season had some very unusual contract sizes for players who are not deserving of them. Zaza Pachulia for Milwaukee being another former Hawk who got a contract that was pretty questionable.
Other notable signings include Elton Brand, who will be a nice veteran to have on a squad who is now getting slowly younger. He was also be a nice back-up to Millsap and can give great toughness off of that bench. DeMarre Carroll, who was Paul Millsap’s teammate in Utah, is a solid signing and will give much-needed depth to their bench and at the SF position.
I also want to talk about a couple of rookies that they picked this past draft: Dennis Schroeder and Lucas Nogueira. Watching them in Summer League this year made me think that Hawk fans should be excited. Nogueira is not quite ready for the NBA, but he has an incredible ceiling. He is 7’0” and weighs 215 pounds at age 20. He was able to block shots and was just a big guy who could clog up the inside. Give it a couple of years, but I think the Hawks have a possible center of the future in this guy. Dennis Schroeder has a nice patience to him and poise. I think he will definitely get some playing time this season and be a nice back-up to Jeff Teague. Furthermore, I think that Schroeder is going to be their starting point guard if the Hawks decide to keep him. He has that skill set and leadership mentality to him. He is only 20 years old as well so the Hawks can take their time. With Teague recently getting matched to a four-year $32 million deal, it gives the Hawks time to develop Dennis and to see if he has it in him.
I think there is enough evidence to say that the Hawks will solidify the second place spot in this division. While I think they got worse over this off-season, they definitely feel like they have a direction and, as always, I think they could mix it up. There is a slight possibility that Washington might challenge for the second place spot depending on whether some of their players pan out, but I think Hawks have enough talent in their starting five and with some nice role players off the bench that they can hold this spot. It should be interesting to watch this team in the next couple of years. I have always felt bad that they cannot seem to get anyone there to watch them play. Even when they were in the playoffs, you could see empty seats. Hopefully some of these moves and the promise of some of the young rookies will excite that fan-base there again.
Third Place—Washington Wizards
Is this the year the Wizards finally sniff the playoffs? It is quite possible as this young squad has gotten a year older and they acquired some new players in the off-season. Nobody really game-changing, but it definitely will fill out a roster that is in desperate need of it. First off, I would like to say that I think the Wizards have been the best team to upgrade and improve their team in the last couple of years. Drafting John Wall to give them a floor general for years to come, drafting Bradley Beal to give them a sharpshooter and great player for years to come, grabbing veterans in Nene and Al Harrington to help bring this team along, and most recently drafting Otto Porter Jr. to add yet another young player with lots of talent and hopefully who will stay in Washington for years to come.
This team finally feels like it is on the rise. The young players on this team are starting to come into their own and some quiet acquisitions in Eric Maynor and Al Harrington have signaled that it is time to stop being awful. Yeah, the Wizards record was pretty horrid last season. John Wall was out for half of it and it seemed like they could never get all the pieces together. The player that impressed me the most was Bradley Beal, the third pick in the 2012 NBA draft. He started off slow, I was even one to say that I was not impressed, but as the season wore on, you could see him start to get comfortable and make an impact. I compare him to Ray Allen. He is an excellent shooter and at the end of the season was lighting it up. Beal averaged 13.9 points in 56 games last game and I wonder what his averages would be if he had played 75 games or so. I think he also would have been rookie of the year if Damian Lillard had not taken the league by storm. With Anthony Davis being injury-ridden last season, I truly believe that Beal would have taken the award, especially since his play amped up at the end of the season. I am excited to see what he is going to be like this coming season and I think he is going to be a pillar for this Wizards franchise.
Having John Wall for a full year is going to help tremendously. We all saw when he came back how the Wizards played. Much more up-tempo and it seemed like they were my in sync with each other. I think if this squad can stay healthy, they can do some damage.
The Wizards did not make big splashes in the off-season. The biggest signings were Eric Maynor to a three-year deal and Al Harrington to a one-year deal. Al Harrington was injured for most of last season and I think this was an undervalued signing. If he has anything left in the tank, then this was worth it. Who knows? We have not seen him play in over a year. We are just assuming he isn’t going to do anything. We might be surprised.
Eric Maynor was an interesting signing. Obviously he is going to come off the bench behind John Wall, but I was surprised at the three-year deal. Usually you want to sign back-ups to two-year deals with a team option or something like that. This shows that they have a lot of faith in this guy and he definitely showed that he can be a weapon while playing for the Blazers last season. I am interested to see what a John Wall/Eric Maynor backcourt looks like. We saw last year how Maynor was able to free up Damian Lillard and, in doing so, made Lillard better towards the end of the season. I suspect this will happen here. People will not be able to just swarm Wall when he drives or brings the ball up. I think Wizard fans will love that aspect of Maynor.
I cannot believe I am saying this, but I think the Wizards will lock up the third spot in this division and possibly challenge for an eighth seed. It is pretty easy to get into the playoffs in the East right now, so I would not be surprised if the Wizards were able to sneak in, much like the Bucks did last year. I suspect that the Wizards’ regular season record is going to jump from winning 25 games to winning 32-35 games. That was enough to get the Bucks in last season. We shall see what happens, but fans in Washington should finally have something to root for.
Fourth Place—Charlotte Bobcats
Oh Charlotte. I feel so sorry for the fans there. Their team was a laughingstock in the lockout-shortened season where they won just 7 games. They showed some promise at the beginning of last season, but then promptly face-planted and ended up with a 21-61 record. That is an upgrade from 7-59, but the fact that you can say that is kind of sad. Anyway, enough bashing of this team. I think the Bobcats, or soon to be Hornets as of next season, had a decent off-season and I think they will be able to at least win a few extra games with the players they got. Let’s dive in.
Probably the biggest signing was Al Jefferson to a three-year deal. Before you say that he makes this team a lot better, let me explain something to you: Al Jefferson does not play defense, like at all. It is nothing new with this squad and it will definitely not help in that regard. However, he is an excellent scorer and has some nice post moves and under-the-basket moves, which I think Charlotte will enjoy. The biggest issue with this team last season was they couldn’t score. Kemba Walker was their highest scorer averaging 17.7 a game, but even then he was inconsistent and not ready to take on that big of a load for this team. The problem Charlotte faces is that they have a lot of issues right now and they need to tackle them one by one. This off-season was definitely trying to solve the scoring issue. Will Al Jefferson solve this issue entirely? No, but he can’t hurt. He averaged 17.8 points and 9.2 rebounds last season with Utah. That will definitely improve the offense of this team and give Kemba Walker someone inside to throw to constantly.
The other new player worth mentioning is the drafting of Cody Zeller with the No. 4 pick. In my opinion, I did not think Cody Zeller would go that high and initially I thought it was an interesting choice. However, I realize now that it was probably the right move to make. They need a big man and they need to start building a core somewhere. Big men are hard to come by and by grabbing him Charlotte has hopefully solidified the center position for years to come. Now, Cody is young at age 20 and he might require some developing as all big men do, typically, but he definitely impressed people in Summer League. I believe if he plays to his potential this season, he can be the rookie of the year. Despite the fans apparently not appreciating the pick according to this video, I think they need to step back and realize that they need to start somewhere and I think this was one of the best moves they have made in the last couple of years. Just look at Phoenix right now, they drafted Alex Len and are going to be building around him. Charlotte should watch Phoenix and learn from what they are doing over there to rebuild. Unfortunately, they will have to build via draft because not a whole lot of free-agents are going to come willingly to Charlotte. The only reason Al Jefferson came is because they paid a lot for him. It is going to be a long hard road, but luckily most of their players are under 25.
I also hope that Charlotte can keep a coach more than one year as they hired yet another coach in Steve Clifford. I wish him luck with this team and I hope he can keep his job after this season. I think it would be healthy as it would feel like this team would be developing something instead of jumping from one coach to the next and not getting used to the coach and his style of play.
Overall, I think the Bobcats will have slightly more experience than Orlando and will be able to bump up their wins by a few games. I still think they are not going to be good, but I think they will not be abysmal. That is why I am predicting that they grab that fourth place slot and continue to look forward to the draft lottery.
Fifth Place—Orlando Magic
I may have put Orlando underneath Charlotte in the standings, but at this point in time, I think Orlando is in better shape with their rookies and young players to grow rapidly. They got some absolute steals and with maybe cleaning out some of the old players that are still lingering, the rebuilding process should be as painless as it can be.
Probably the biggest acquisition was drafting Victor Oladipo with the No. 2 pick in the draft. This was the right guy to pick. It was a safe pick and he will provide them with an insane motor and an incredible work ethic, which will be a nice example for all the other young, budding players on this team. I compare him to Tony Allen. I think he will be an excellent defensive player and just someone who mixes things up and gets in your face. It is hard to come by those guys, so congrats to Orlando for that pick.
I am curious to see how Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic develop. Man, Vucevic might as well have a vacuum for a face when he is out on the court. He averaged 13.1 points and 11.9 rebounds a game in just his second year making 76ers fans cringe and moan as they gave him up for Andrew Bynum. The amount of rebounding he does is astounding. When you see him get 20 or more rebounds two nights in a row at his age, there is something special with him. Orlando fans should be jumping for joy as he is young at age 22 and can definitely improve. He is going to be absolutely scary in a couple of years.
Tobias Harris was traded from Milwaukee to Orlando and honestly should be glad. He was getting absolutely no time in Milwaukee and it obviously was a bad idea. When he got to Orlando he started playing 30-45 minutes a game and putting up numbers like 27 points and 10 rebounds in just his fifth game with the Magic and according to the Magic’s official website, he has bulked up from 223 pounds to 240 pounds. This guy is a SF! Harris and Vucevic have really bright futures and Orlando would do good to lock them up early and build around Oladipo and those two players.
The only other thing I will say is that they would do good to start looking for a young starting point-guard to grow alongside those three players. Jameer Nelson is a solid point guard and could help a contending team who needs that extra push. Nelson is 31 and feels like old furniture. He was a critical piece in the Howard years, but now with the obvious youth movement happening, I would explore options.
All this being said, I do think they will be in last place in their division. However, I think there is the outside possibility that this team gels quickly and they nose their way into a fourth or third slot in this division. I think with just a few more pieces, Orlando has the making of a great core of players who, in about four to five years, will be deadly.